Though the terms Expected Value and Positive Expected Value are thrown around the professional gambling circles as if it is some sort of cryptic concept that only a select few understand, anybody can grasp the method. But understanding the model is not what creates any sort of advantage. Being able to apply probabilities backed by statistically significant data to the Expected Value equation so that it yields a positive long term outcome is. This is the rub. For every 20 people who throw around the term +EV, there is maybe one who actually knows how to process it on his own.
The image on the left is the goal of every NCAAF processor. This is a picture of teams that were consistently mispriced for the 2015 season. It is a picture of opportunity.
For 20 Years
We have groomed a combination of algorithms and probability theories where the objective is to find mispriced NCAAF teams and have tracked this method that has yielded a record of 796-629 (56%) since 2008. While we wouldn’t even dream of having the influence to manipulate the lines where we would prefer to have them, we identify mispriced teams at the opening line and that is when you – an advantaged player – should too. We do not try to make heads or tails of initial line movement or chase ‘sharp’ money because our results speak for themselves. With proven +EV moves, everything else in the market is just a distraction. So be ready when the window opens.
Our method of Advantage wagering is not about “picking winners” in the short term, but rather associating probabilities with outcomes that have proven a long term advantage. The process of combining our probability estimate with the available odds establishes our edge and determines the size of the investment.