Every sportsbooks preys on the psyche of the majority of the sports betting population and that is the appeal of doubling your money overnight, turning a bad Saturday around by “making it all back” with wild bets on late West Coast games, or even worse – on Sunday.
Let’s face it – we’ve all done it. It is human nature. But your sportsbook knows that in the long run, this mindset is a money-losing proposition. Sports bettors do not like slow, deliberate and disciplined sports investing. They are tempted by the notion of winning 10 straight games and turning a little into a lot in one weekend.
And this is why they build those large buildings in Las Vegas. You are set up to lose from the time you walk in that casino sportsbook.
The choice to be an investor versus a bettor and betting only when the odds in your favor, is the choice to turn the tables on your book – and this is the mark of an Advantaged Player.
Expected value is what you can expect the outcome of a bet to be if you have no edge and is delineated very simply by the following equation:
Expected Value = (Probability of Winning)(Gain) – (Probability of Losing)(Loss)
So in a game of flipping a coins with no vig (or juice) your Expected Value would be zero.
0 = (50%)(100) – (50%)(100)
Using a standard 10% vig (Bet $110 to Win $100) and assume for a moment a world of perfect information where the odds of sportsbetting outcomes follow that of coin flips (50%), you can see where this is set up for you to lose, as you are facing a Negative Expected Value.
-5% = (50%)(100) – (50%)(110)
With no adjustment to the probability of winning or the probability of losing, every sports bettor faces a Negative Expected Value of 5% every time he lays a bet. The odds are stacked against you.
Now. The Advantaged Player eats the vig and uses probabilities rooted in statistically significant sample sizes to yield Positive Expected Value:
+7.6% = (56%)(100) – (44%)(110)
The concept is easy enough. Determining if your probability estimates have actionable value is all that matters. So the next time someone purports to have a “+EV Move”, ask him where he got his probabilities from. Odds are, he is going to say I don’t process the information, I just know where to get it. He’s the messenger. And in that case – you are accepting his information at face value.
Because it is the only sport we have proven to have an edge in.
Although we’d love to tell you we’ve established a statistically significant sample size that prove +EV investments on the NFL, we cannot. And it is not because we haven’t tried. If you pay for a service that has proven long term success (54%+) in the NFL, then it is worth paying for – and you should pay for it every year.
Professional football has been the most popular sport in America for the last 3 decades and running, and is far and away the most popular sport to bet on. The NFL market itself is characterized by a very small group for oddsmakers to analyze (32 teams) on a very tight spectrum of comparable talent (professional), and this results in razor sharp lines that are difficult to find value in. We believe this creates an effective kill box for Las Vegas sportsbooks, and we see no value in it. Though we wouldn’t say it’s impossible to extract value in the NFL market, after years of toiling in it - our advice is to steer clear of the NFL entirely. In the long run, it will only erode the profitability our edge in college football creates.
In the end - we are not going to offer anything that we do not know results in long term profitability.
The betting public sets the lines.
It is undoubtedly true that there is a realistic mathematical difference in any given two teams, and in a world with perfect information that would be the only line that ever had to be calculated. In that theoretical world, there is no edge to be had in sports betting. Sports bettors are reduced to nothing more than coin flippers.
But just as much as odds makers are tasked with coming up with a performance-based, quantitative difference in two teams, they are also tasked with estimating public perception. For this reason, the betting public actually sets the line and moreover – it is the very reason there is an attainable edge that can be used to the sports bettors advantage. Skewed public perception results in point spreads that are biased one way or the other, and so the ability to identify lines that have deviated from the realistic line based on psychology rather than math represents the advantaged play.
If you are one of the minority that are investing into sports betting with the intention of being profitable and making money – we can help you. You will be profitable with a long-term disciplined approach. But you will likely be identified by your book as a pesky account that is consistently costing them money, and if you do it long enough - pretty soon they will flag you as being an advantaged player and they will either limit you – or they will refuse to accept your action any longer. You can be certain that you are easily identifiable not only in your consistent profitability, but in the manner in which you bet.
Unfortunately, this is the consequence of being an advantaged player and you are going to be faced with having to find new outlets for people to take your action. Plan ahead.